:Product: 04231230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels due to only four C-class flares
occurring during the past 24 hours. Region 2038 (S11W40, Dai/beta-gamma)
was responsible for half of the flare activity, including the largest
flare of the period, a C4/Sf flare at 23/0104 UTC. Region 2035 (S13W78,
Ekc/beta-gamma) remained one of the most magnetically complex regions on
the visible disk, yet was fairly inactive. The remaining spotted regions
were either relatively stable or showed slight decay. No new regions
were numbered. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
M-class flares (NOAA Scale R1/R2 - Minor/Moderate) for the forecast
period (23-25 Apr) as Regions 2034, 2035, and 2036 make their way around
the west limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is also expected remain
at nominal levels for the forecast period (23-25 Apr).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, continued to show
signs of nominal conditions. Bt remained steady between 2 nT and 4 nT,
and solar wind speeds decreased from around 470 km/s to near 430 km/s.
Bz held steady between +/- 2nT until just after 23/0300 UTC, when it
began varying between +/-4 nT. Phi angle remained in a mostly positive
(away) orientation until just before the start of the new UTC day.
Shortly after 23/2235 UTC, Phi angle oscillated to a negative (towards)
orientation, where it remained through the end of the period.

.Forecast...
A negative polarity solar wind feature is still expected mid-day on day
one (23 Apr) based on recurrence, and should persist through days two
and three (24-25 Apr). Wind speeds near 550 km/s are expected with
intermittent southward Bz as well.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next three days
(23-25 Apr), due to a weak recurrent negative polarity feature in the
solar wind stream.