:Product: 04221230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels due to several low-level C-class
flares, the largest of which was an impulsive C8/Sf flare at 22/1137 UTC
from Region 2035 (S14W66, Eac/beta-gamma). Region 2035 and Region 2038
(S12W26, Dac/beta-gamma) remained the most magnetically complex and
active regions on the visible disk, and continued to exhibit slight
growth during the period. Region 2045 (S03E42, Dao/beta) was the only
other region to show signs of growth, but remained fairly inactive
throughout the period. The remaining spotted regions were either
relatively stable or showed slight decay. No new regions were numbered.

Additional analysis of the C5/Sf flare that occurred at 21/2002 UTC
determined that a weak coronal mass ejection (CME) was associated with
the flare, but had a trajectory well north of the ecliptic plane and
should not have effect on Earth. No Earth-directed CMEs are believed to
exist at this time.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
M-class flares (NOAA Scale R1/R2 - Minor/Moderate) for the forecast
period (22-24 Apr) as the majority of the most complex spot groups
rotate around the west limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected remain at
nominal levels for the remainder of the forecast period (22-24 Apr).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, continued to show
a recovery of conditions following the CME activity on 20 April. Solar
wind speeds decreased over the period from near 575 km/s to an
end-of-period speed near 485 km/s. IMF Bt decreased from 6 nT to 4 nT,
while Bz remained positive for the majority of the period, varying
slightly from a maximum southward deviation of -2 nT, to a peak value of
4 nT. The Phi angle began the period in a negative (toward) orientation
but slowly migrated into a positive (away) sector for the latter half of
the period.

.Forecast...
Waning CME effects will continue through the remainder of day one
(22 Apr). By day two (23 Apr), a weak recurrent negative polarity
feature in the solar wind stream will likely begin to interact with the
residual CME effects to keep solar wind parameters slightly enhanced.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field began the period at unsettled to active levels,
but fell to quiet levels after the 21/2100 UTC synoptic period. It
remained at quiet levels through the end of the period.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the forecast period
(22-24 Apr) as a weak recurrent negative polarity feature in the solar
wind stream combines with waning CME effects.