:Product: 04220030forecast_discussion.txt :Issued: 2014 Apr 22 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels due to a few unremarkable low-level C-class flares. Region 2038(S10W20, Cai/beta) produced the largest event of the period, a C5/Sf at 21/2002 UTC. No CME related radio signatures were reported, but due to a location favorable for effects to Earth, as well as a wave visible in GOES SXI, more definitive CME determination will be conducted as more data becomes available. The three most magnetically complex regions on the disk remained Regions 2034(N05W80, Eki/beta-gamma), 2035(S15W58, Eki/beta-gamma) and 2036 (S17W81, Esi/beta-gamma), though all appear in decay or stable. The remaining spotted regions showed little change the past 24 hours. No new regions were numbered. An eruptive prominence produced a CME off the NW limb just before 21/1100 UTC, but the ejecta appears to be moving in a trajectory off the Sun-Earth line. No Earth-directed CMEs are believed to exist at this time. .Forecast... C-class activity is expected to continue through the forecast period keeping solar activity at predominately low levels with a chance for moderate (R1-minor) activity for the next three days (22-24 Apr). A slight chance for high levels (R2 - Moderate to R3-Strong) remains for day one (22 April), but will wane as the most complex regions rotate off the West limb of the visible disk by late day one. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels for the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux levels remained slightly enhanced at less than 2 pfu, but continued to recover towards background through the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain slightly elevated, but well below the 10 pfu threshold through day one (22 Apr). A slight chance for another S1-Minor event remains forecast through day one, before Region 2036 fully transits off the solar disk. Flux levels are expected to return to nominal levels by days two and three (23-24 Apr). Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... ACE satellite solar wind parameter observations continued to depict a recovery of conditions following the CME activity on 20 April that has persisted since. Solar wind speeds decreased over the period from near 650 km/s to 520 km/s. Bt continued to decrease, with a peak of 12nT near shortly after onset of the period and ending the period near 5nT. The Phi angle was mostly in a negative (toward) orientation with variations into a positive (away) sector both early and late in the period. EPAM particles displayed recovery towards background at all energy channels as well. .Forecast... Residual disturbed conditions should continue to diminish into day one (22 Apr). A weak recurrent negative polarity feature in the solar wind stream may keep conditions from returning to a purely nominal state, with solar wind speeds forecast to remain in the 450-500 km/s range through the period. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity continued to be influenced by residual CME effects. Activity levels ranged from quiet to active levels throughout the period. .Forecast... Active levels are expected for the onset of day one (22 Apr) with unsettled levels expected to follow as CME conditions continue to wane. Quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast for days two and three (23-24 Apr) as a weak recurrent negative polarity feature in the solar wind stream is expected.