:Product: 04171230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 17 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 2035 (S14E03,
Fsc/beta-gamma) produced a M1/1N solar flare (NOAA Scale R1 - minor
radio blackout) at 16/1959 UTC with an associated type II radio sweep
(estimated speed 1071 km/s). Based on limited SOHO LASCO C2/C3
coronagraph and STEREO A and B images, initial analysis indicated an
Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) with a preliminary speed of
642 km/s. Current Enlil run indicates a potential arrival at Earth on 19
April at approximately 1800 UTC. Additional analysis will be
accomplished with possible adjustments to timing of arrival times as
additional data becomes available. Origins of the previous Type II and
Type IV sweeps could not be determined due to a data gap at that time,
though Region 2035 is a likely suspect.

Region 2034 (N05W19, Dsc/beta) exhibited moderate growth in its
intermediate spots. Region 2036 (S15W21, Dac/beta-gamma) continued to
show growth in areal coverage as well as exhibiting continued mixing in
its intermediate spot area. New Region 2042 also showed growth as it
rotated further on to the visible disk, though limb proximity inhibited
accurate magnetic analysis. Region 2038 (S13E44, Cso/beta) and Region
2039 (N25W10, Bxo/beta) both exhibited slight growth during the period
as well. The remaining spot groups were either stable or exhibited
slight decay.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-Minor) for the next three
days (17 - 19 Apr) due to solar region complexity and growth.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels through 16/2335 UTC, then dropped to normal levels where
it remained for the remainder of the period. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels for the next three days (17 - 19 Apr). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to
be at background levels (Below S1-Minor) during the period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, were near
background conditions through approximately 16/2000 UTC.  Solar wind
speed remained steady near 300 km/s, IMF Bt was steady at 3 nT while the
Bz component remained at -2 nT. Shortly before 2000 UTC, IMF total field
showed a slight increase to 6 nT with Bz dropping to -6 nT. Phi angle
was oscillating between negative (toward) and positive (away) for the
first half of the period as well. Just before the new UT day began, the
IMF total field again saw a slight increase to 9 nT, with Bz seeing a
maximum deflection near -8 nT.  Wind speed also increase around this
time to approximately 350 km/s. Wind speeds continued a slow but steady
increase through the end of the period, finishing at approximately 390
km/s. Both IMF Bt and Bz remained variable through the end of the period
while the Phi angle settled into a positive (away) orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind enhancements, including modest speed and Bt increases, are
expected on days one and two (17 - 18 Apr) due to possible recurrent
activity.  A return to nominal conditions is expected by day three (19
Apr).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet with isolated
unsettled periods for days one and two (17 - 18 Apr) in response to
possible recurrent enhancements in solar wind parameters. The field
should return to mostly quiet levels on day three (19 Apr).