:Product: 04160030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Apr 16 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Multiple C-class events were observed
throughout the period, including the largest flare, a C8/Sn from Region
2035 (S19E26, Fac/beta-gamma) at 15/0923 UTC. Region 2036 (S18W01,
Dkc/beta-gamma) produced the remaining C-class flares. The remainder of
the disk was quiet and stable. New Regions 2039 (N16E28, Bxo/beta) and
2040 (N24E11,Bxo/beta) were numbered during the period. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during the
period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1-Minor) flares for the next three days (16 - 18 Apr).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (16 - 18
Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at background levels (Below S1-Minor) during the period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, exhibited a
decreasing trend throughout the period. Speeds slightly decreased from
385 km/s to near 340 km/s. IMF Bt ranged from 1-4 nT while the Bz
component varied between +/- 4 nT. The phi angle was variable until
approximately 15/1730 UTC when it became oriented in a mostly negative
(towards) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be be nominal for day one (16
Apr). slightly agitated solar wind parameters including modest speed and
Bt increases are expected on days two and three (17 - 18 Apr) due to
possible recurrent activity.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled period
between 15/0300 - 0600 UTC.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet levels are anticipated for day one (16 Apr). Quiet to
unsettled levels are forecast for days two and three (17 - 18 Apr) from
anticipated recurrent variations in solar wind parameters, including
modest speed and Bt increases.