:Product: 04151230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Multiple C-class events were observed
throughout the period, including the largest flare, an impulsive C8/Sf
from Region 2035 (S19E43, Fac/beta-gamma). Region 2036 (S18E06,
Dkc/beta-gamma) produced the majority of the remaining C-class flares.
This region continued to displayed signs of modest growth and magnetic
mixing and continued to be the most active region on the visible disk.
Regions 2034 (N04E09, Eai/beta), 2035, and 2037 (S09E10, Dao/beta) all
exhibited slight growth during the period while the remainder of the
disk was quiet and stable. New Region 2038 (S12E71, Hsx/alpha) was
numbered over night. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
were observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1-Minor) flares for the next three days (15-17 Apr), with Regions 2035
and 2036 being the main regions of interest.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (15-17 Apr).
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at background levels (Below S1-Minor) during the period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speeds, measured at the ACE spacecraft, exhibited a
decreasing trend throughout the period. Speeds decreased from 380 km/s
at the beginning of the period to an end-of-period speed of ~350 km/s,
reaching a max of 402 km/s at 14/1702 UTC. IMF Bt started the period at
6 nT then steadily decreased to 1 nT at the end of the period, while the
Bz component varied between +4 nT/- 5 nT, ending at -1 nT. The phi angle
was in a predominately negative (towards) orientation with brief
oscillations into the positive (away) sector near the end of the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to wane on day one (15
Apr) as residual solar sector boundary effects taper off. Nominal solar
wind conditions are expected on days two and three (16 - 17 Apr).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels with an isolated 
unsettled period, likely associated with residual effects of a solar
sector boundary crossing (SSBC).

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled levels (below G1-Minor) are anticipated for day one
(15 Apr). Days two and three (16-17 Apr) should see a return to mostly
quiet conditions.