:Product: 04150030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 15 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. multiple C-class events were observed
from Region 2036 (S18E13, Dai/beta-gamma), the largest was a C7/Sf flare
observed at 14/0438 UTC. This region displayed signs of modest growth
and magnetic mixing. The remainder of the disk was quiet and stable. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during the
period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1-Minor) flares for the next three days (15-17 Apr), particularly from
Regions 2035 and 2036.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels for the next three days (15-17 Apr), with a
chance for moderate levels on 15-16 April. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at background
levels (Below S1-Minor) during the period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speeds, measured at the ACE spacecraft, varied between
approximately 350 to 410 km/s through the period. IMF Bt was steady at
4-6 nT while the Bz component varied between +/- 5 nT. The phi angle was
in a predominately negative (towards) orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to display minor disturbed behaviors
on day one (15 Apr) due to nighttime effects and residual solar sector
boundary related disturbance. By day two (16 Apr) and through day three
(17 Apr), a gradual decrease to nominal solar wind conditions are
expected.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to residual
effects of a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC).

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled levels (below G1-Minor) are anticipated for day one
(15 Apr).  Mostly quiet conditions are expected for days two and three
(16-17 Apr).