:Product: 04141230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 14 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Numerous C-class events were observed
from Region 2036 (S18E19, Dai/beta-gamma), the largest was a C7/Sf flare
observed at 14/0438 UTC. Coincident with this flare was brightening on
the east limb near S15 in the vicinity of old active Region 2014 (S14,
L=188), expected to return within the next 12-24 hours. A C5 x-ray event
was observed at 14/0800 UTC off the east limb near S15. Since emerging
on the disk 24 hours ago, Region 2036 rapidly developed from a simple
B-type, bi-polar group into a D-type configuration with beta-gamma
magnetic characteristics.

C-class activity was also observed from new Region 2037 (S09E22,
Dro/beta). At 13/2017 UTC, the region produced a C1/Sf flare. This
region also rapidly developed within the past 12-24 hours. Region 2035
(S18E43, Ehi/beta-gamma) remained the largest region on the disk. The
region exhibited intermediate spot growth but was quiet during the
period. The remainder of the disk limb was quiet and stable. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during the
period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with an increasing chance for
M-class (R1-Minor) flares for the next three days (14-16 Apr),
particularly from Regions 2034 (N04E22, Eai/beta), 2035, 2036 and the
return of old Regions 2014 and 2017 (N10, L=146) on or about 15 April.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels for the next three days (14-16 Apr), with a
chance for moderate levels 15-16 April. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at background levels
(Below S1-Minor) during the period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speeds, measured at the ACE spacecraft, varied between 350 to
410 km/s through the period. IMF Bt was steady at 5-6 nT while the Bz
component varied between +/- 5 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately
negative (towards) orientation.

.Forecast...
Wind speeds are expected to peak on day one (14 Apr) near 500 km/s due
to a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). By day two
(15 Apr) and through day three (16 Apr), a gradual decrease to nominal
speeds are expected as CH HSS effect wane.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to CH HSS
effects. A geomagnetic sudden impulse was observed at several middle and
high latitude stations at approximately 14/0612 UTC. A deviation of 15
nT was recorded at the Boulder magnetometer.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled levels (below G1-Minor) are anticipated for the
remainder of day one (14 Apr) through early on day two (15 Apr). Mostly
quiet conditions are then expected through day three (16 Apr).