:Product: 04140030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 14 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. A c1 flare was observed around S15 off the east
limb at 13/1241 UTC, near where old Region 2014 (S14, L=188) was
located. New Region 2037 (S10E30, Bxo/beta) was numbered today and
produced a C1 at 13/2017 UTC. Region 2036 (S18E25, Dro/beta) continued
to develop during the past 24 hours. All other regions were either
stable or exhibited slight decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) were observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with an increasing chance for
M-class (R1-Minor) flares for the next three days (14-16 Apr),
particularly from Regions 2034 (N05E31, Dho/beta-gamma), 2035 (S18E50,
Eai/beta-gamma) and the return of old Region 2017 (N10, L=146) on 15
April.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels during the period (14-16 Apr), with a chance for
moderate levels during the latter half of the period. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at
background levels (Below S1-Minor) during the period.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speeds, measured at the ACE spacecraft, held steady around
350 km/s until approximately 1600 UTC when they increased gradually to
speeds near 390 km/s. IMF Bt was steady at 8 nT while Bz was at -8 nT
until around 0400 UTC. After that, total field ranged between 3 nT - 8
nT and Bz was variable between -6 nT and +5 nT. The phi angle was
predominately negative (towards).

.Forecast...
Based on the latest WSA/Enlil ambient model run, peak wind speed in the
500 km/s to 550 km/s range are predicted with this CH HSS. High speed
stream winds are expected to persist through day one (14 Apr) when a
gradual decrease to nominal speeds are expected by day two (15 Apr).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Active periods
were observed from 13/0000 - 0600 UTC coincident with a period of
sustained negative Bz.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled levels (below G1-Minor) are anticipated for the
remainder through early on day two (15 Apr). Mostly quiet conditions are
expected for the remainder of 15 April as CH HSS effects wane.