:Product: 04131230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 13 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. A few B-class x-ray events were
observed from Regions 2032 (N13E05, Hsx/alpha), 2035 (S18E56,
Eai/beta-gamma) and old Region 2027 (N13, L=013). No significant changes
were noted on the disk or limb. New Region 2036 (S18E31, Bxo/beta)
emerged on the disk as a simple bi-polar spot group. No Earth-directed
CMEs were detected.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with an increasing chance for
M-class (R1-Minor) flares for the next three days (13-15 Apr),
particularly from Regions 2034, 2035 and the return of old Region 2017
(N10, L=146) on 15 April.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels during the period (13-15 Apr), with a chance for
moderate levels during the latter half of the period. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at
background levels (Below S1-Minor) during the period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft remained in the low to mid 300
km/s range with a slight rise to about 375 km/s noted after 12/2000 UTC.
The slight increase may be the first sign of the anticipated coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS). IMF Bt was steady at 10 nT through
12/2000 UTC when a gradual decrease to end-of-period values of 5 nT was
observed. The Bz component of the IMF was weakly southward to -4 nT
through about 12/1800 UTC. After that, Bz deviated between +4 nT to -8
nT. The phi angle was in a negative (towards) orientation through the
period.

.Forecast...
Based on the latest WSA/Enlil ambient model run, peak wind speed in the
500 km/s to 550 km/s range are predicted with this CH HSS. High speed
stream winds are expected to persist through day two (14 Apr) when a
gradual decrease to nominal speeds are expected by day three (15 Apr).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Active periods
were observed from 13/0000 - 0600 UTC coincident with a period of
sustained negative Bz.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled levels (below G1-Minor) are anticipated for the
remainder of day one (13 Apr) through early on day three (15 Apr).
Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of 15 April as CH
HSS effects wane.