:Product: 04130030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 2035 (S16E62,
Eai/beta-gamma) produced a few C-class events during the period
including a C5 flare associated with a CME that was first visible on
LASCO C2 imagery at 12/0748 UTC. As with yesterdays CME, it appears a
majority of the ejecta was not on the Earth-Sun line. During the period,
Region 2034 (N13E32, Dao/beta) exhibited some growth and consolidation
in its large leader spot, however the region remained quiet. The
remainder of the spotted regions were quiet and stable.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with an increasing chance for
M-class (R1-Minor) flares for the next three days (13-15 Apr),
particularly from Regions 2034 and 2035.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels during the period (13-15 Apr), with a chance for
moderate levels during the latter half of the period. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at
background levels (Below S1-Minor) during the period.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft remained in the low to mid 300
km/s range, rising slightly after 12/1900 UTC.  The slight increase may
be the first sign of the anticipated coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS). IMF Bt was steady at 10 nT while Bz was steady at -9 nT until
around 12/0900 UTC. After that, IMF Bt varied between 9 nT and 11 nT
while Bz steadily changed from negative to positive with a maximum
positive deviation of 5 nT. The phi angle was positive (away) until
approximately 12/0500 UTC when it changed to a predominately negative
(toward) sector.

.Forecast...
A coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is predicted to become
geoeffective beginning later today with an increase in solar
wind speed and enhancements in the IMF. The latest WSA/Enlil ambient
model run indicates peak wind speed in the 500 km/s to 550 km/s range
with this CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field began at G1-Minor storm levels from 12/0000 - 0900
UTC due to sustained negative Bz followed by quiet to unsettled
conditions as the southward deviation weakened.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to active levels (Below G1-Minor) are anticipated from midday
on the 12th through 13 Apr in response to the onset of a CH HSS.  Mostly
unsettled conditions are expected on 14 April as CH HSS effects begin to
subside.