:Product: 0517RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
17/0239Z from Region 2066 (S15W12). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
May, 19 May, 20 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 372 km/s at
17/0826Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/2112Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/2005Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 May, 19 May, 20
May).

III.  Event probabilities 18 May-20 May
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 May 134
Predicted   18 May-20 May 135/135/130
90 Day Mean        17 May 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May-20 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05