:Product: 0513RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
13/0920Z from Region 2056 (N05W23). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 May, 15 May,
16 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 412 km/s at
13/0021Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 295 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 May, 16
May) and quiet to active levels on day two (15 May).

III.  Event probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 May 159
Predicted   14 May-16 May 165/165/160
90 Day Mean        13 May 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  007/008-009/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/35/25