:Product: 0509RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
09/1501Z from Region 2058 (S14E57). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May,
12 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
405 km/s at 09/1647Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 08/2150Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 08/2204Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (11 May, 12 May).

III.  Event probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 May 152
Predicted   10 May-12 May 150/155/160
90 Day Mean        09 May 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  013/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  011/012-010/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/20/10