:Product: 0506RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at
06/0903Z from Region 2051 (S09W92). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (07 May) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (08 May, 09 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 425 km/s at
05/2150Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 05/2209Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 05/2139Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (07 May) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (08 May, 09 May).

III.  Event probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M    40/25/25
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 May 139
Predicted   07 May-09 May 135/135/135
90 Day Mean        06 May 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  006/005-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    05/20/25