:Product: 0503RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 May 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 03/0608Z from Region 2051 (S09W50). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 361 km/s at 03/1856Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 03/1842Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 03/1944Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 104 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (05 May) and quiet levels on day three (06 May). III. Event probabilities 04 May-06 May Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 May 133 Predicted 04 May-06 May 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 03 May 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 009/008-008/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/15/05 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 35/25/15 Major-severe storm 35/20/05