:Product: 0502RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
02/0940Z from Region 2047 (S18W28). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 May, 04 May,
05 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 391 km/s at
01/2304Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (03 May) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (04 May, 05 May).

III.  Event probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 May 135
Predicted   03 May-05 May 135/140/145
90 Day Mean        02 May 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May  006/005-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           15/30/25
Major-severe storm    05/25/20