:Product: 0430RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
30/0620Z from Region 2049 (S07E29). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 May,
02 May, 03 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 330 km/s at 30/2049Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 30/1946Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 30/1307Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 263
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (02 May) and quiet levels on day three (03 May).

III.  Event probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Apr 124
Predicted   01 May-03 May 120/115/115
90 Day Mean        30 Apr 155

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  014/015-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/05
Minor Storm           15/15/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    50/55/05