:Product: 0428RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Apr 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
28/1526Z from Region 2048 (N20W51). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Apr,
30 Apr, 01 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
349 km/s at 27/2107Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1234 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (29 Apr, 30 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (01 May).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Apr-01 May
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Apr 121
Predicted   29 Apr-01 May 125/125/120
90 Day Mean        28 Apr 155

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Apr  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Apr  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May  008/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Apr-01 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/15
Major-severe storm    30/30/05