:Product: 0425RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
25/0027Z from Region 2035, which rotated off of the solar disk on 23
April. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (26 Apr) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on day two (27 Apr) and expected to be very low with a
chance for a C-class flares on day three (28 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
540 km/s at 24/2300Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/2105Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/2227Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1075 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr, 28
Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
Class M    20/15/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Apr 125
Predicted   26 Apr-28 Apr 120/118/115
90 Day Mean        25 Apr 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05