:Product: 0412RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
12/0727Z from Region 2035 (S16E62). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr,
15 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 372 km/s at 11/2209Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 12/1410Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 12/0611Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Apr) and quiet levels on
days two and three (14 Apr, 15 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
Class M    35/40/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Apr 136
Predicted   13 Apr-15 Apr 140/140/145
90 Day Mean        12 Apr 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr  019/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr  011/015-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/35/35