:Product: 0410RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
10/0152Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr,
13 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 472 km/s at
09/2230Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10/2059Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -1 nT at 09/2246Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Apr) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Apr 137
Predicted   11 Apr-13 Apr 140/140/145
90 Day Mean        10 Apr 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  006/005-008/008-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/30/30
Minor Storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/40/40