:Product: 0407RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 97 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
07/0631Z from Region 2026 (S12W31). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr,
10 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
433 km/s at 07/1850Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/1215Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 07/1422Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr, 10
Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Apr 140
Predicted   08 Apr-10 Apr 140/140/140
90 Day Mean        07 Apr 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05