:Product: 0406RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
06/2101Z from Region 2031 (N03W25). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (07 Apr, 08 Apr) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (09 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
488 km/s at 05/2219Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 06/0212Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/1121Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (07 Apr, 08 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (09 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M    30/30/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Apr 141
Predicted   07 Apr-09 Apr 140/140/140
90 Day Mean        06 Apr 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  006/005-006/005-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/20