:Product: 0402RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
02/1405Z from Region 2027 (N12E42). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Apr, 04 Apr,
05 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
496 km/s at 02/0355Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/2331Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/2149Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (03 Apr, 04 Apr) and quiet to
active levels on day three (05 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Apr, 04 Apr, 05 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Apr 155
Predicted   03 Apr-05 Apr 155/160/160
90 Day Mean        02 Apr 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr  006/005-005/005-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/30
Minor Storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           10/15/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/45