:Product: 0331RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Mar 31 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 31/0807Z from Region 2014 (S13W91). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 441 km/s at 31/1722Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 31/1757Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/1629Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (01 Apr, 03 Apr) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (02 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr). III. Event probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Mar 152 Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 150/145/145 90 Day Mean 31 Mar 159 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 010/012-020/028-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/40/25 Minor Storm 05/25/05 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/15 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 35/60/30