:Product: 0325RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Mar 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
25/0610Z from Region 2010 (S14W41). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar,
28 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
503 km/s at 25/2042Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 25/1938Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 25/1938Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Mar) and quiet levels on
days two and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Mar 153
Predicted   26 Mar-28 Mar 155/160/160
90 Day Mean        25 Mar 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  010/012-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/05/05
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    40/05/05