:Product: 0324RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Mar 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
24/0010Z from Region 2014 (S14E06). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Mar, 26 Mar,
27 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 521 km/s at
23/2318Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Mar), quiet to active
levels on day two (26 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (27 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Mar 159
Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar 160/165/160
90 Day Mean        24 Mar 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  008/008-011/012-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/05
Minor Storm           01/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/15
Major-severe storm    20/40/05