:Product: 0321RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Mar 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/1038Z from Region 2013 (N13E30). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar,
24 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
376 km/s at 21/1558Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 21/2059Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/0134Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (22 Mar, 23 Mar)
and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Mar 153
Predicted   22 Mar-24 Mar 155/160/160
90 Day Mean        21 Mar 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar  008/008-007/008-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/40