:Product: 0313RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Mar 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
12/2234Z from Region 1996 (N14W78). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar) because there are large, magnetically complex
regions on the disk.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 504 km/s at 13/2055Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 13/0120Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 12/2313Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Mar 148
Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar 145/145/140
90 Day Mean        13 Mar 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar   NA/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  006/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05