:Product: 0312RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Mar 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M2/Sn event observed
at 12/1105Z from Region 1996 (N14W78). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 339 km/s at
11/2334Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/2043Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8 nT at 12/2020Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15
Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Mar 148
Predicted   13 Mar-15 Mar 145/140/140
90 Day Mean        12 Mar 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05