:Product: 0306RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Mar 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
06/0357Z from Region 1993 (N16W51). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Mar, 08 Mar,
09 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
539 km/s at 06/0703Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/2145Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 06/1125Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (07 Mar), quiet to active levels on day
two (08 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Mar 149
Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar 145/135/130
90 Day Mean        06 Mar 160

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  006/005-009/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/30/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/25
Major-severe storm    05/35/25